Positioning & Rates

Large institutional traders have kept a net long position in the euro across the last month, steady over the three readings, so they’re still favoring the euro. Rates tell a different story: the dollar pays 1.58% more than the euro, which keeps demand for the dollar alive. Open interest in euro futures increased over the last five days while price fell, a sign that new positions are being opened into the decline rather than old ones being closed. Options gamma is negative, which means moves around here tend to speed up rather than slow down.

Price Action

Selling has driven price toward the zone at about 2.5 times the usual daily pace of the last five days. That explains how price is getting there, not what it will do once it arrives.

The selling hasn’t let up in the last six hours either. Wait for a rejection first — don’t go in blind.

The session has been unusually active, with range at 179% and volume at 197% of normal for this pair. Inside the zone, price will find a CME Volume Node at 1.08870 — a price where heavy futures volume has traded in recent weeks and where the market often pauses or reacts.

Just below it sits more than $1B in open put options at 1.08738, one of the largest put positions on this pair. When that much money is tied to one price, the market makers behind those options tend to trade around it, which often acts like a floor. Right above the zone, the gamma flip at 1.09051 — the level where market makers change how they hedge — can slow price down on its way in.